Forecast models peg Hillary Clinton as the leader, but they aren’t all ready to give her a victory

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Democrat Hillary Clinton is still running ahead in today’s presidential election, according to the eight projection models we have checked in on weekly at the political website 270towin.com and RealClearPolitics since Oct. 3.

Seven of the models give her more than enough votes in the Electoral College to claim a victory over Republican Donald Trump.

As has been true since we began this exercise, RealClearPolitics offers a different look at the race. Clinton is in the lead, but down from 263 electoral votes last week to 203. Trump is holding steady at 164. The real difference is the category of tossup states, which now number 14 (including Georgia) and account for 171 electoral votes – seven more than Trump can claim as likely or safely to vote for him.

Here’s the range:

  • Clinton’s totals run from 203 to 323 electoral votes, compared with 263 to 323 last week.
  • Trump’s scores on the models start at 164 electoral votes and go as high as 216, compared with 164 to 215 last week.
  • The tossups run from zero to 171 electoral votes.

In a bit of an oddity, Clinton’s highest total comes from the Rothenberg & Gonzales Ratings, which has not been updated since Thursday.

That means it came after FBI Director James Comey notified Congress on Oct. 28 that more emails had been found that could have affected the bureau’s investigation into Clinton’s use of a private server as secretary of state, but not before he announced Sunday that a review of the emails found nothing to warrant new charges against her.

Once again, let’s stress that these are projections. Some take into account factors such as the economy and a state’s voting history, but others rely entirely on polling.

Nate Silver, the force behind one of the models, the FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast, injected plenty of uncertainty in a note to his readers Monday. While noting that momentum seemed to be building behind Clinton, “she’ll still be the probable but far-from-certain winner.”

He added, “That means tomorrow is going to be very exciting – not only because the result is uncertain but because an unusually large number of states will potentially have a say in the outcome.”

Here are some of the basics you need to know when looking at these models, which are found on the political website 270towin.com and RealClearPolitics:

They all rate states as “safe” for one candidate or the other, “likely” or “leaning,” or “undecided,” and they assess how many electoral votes each candidate has. 270towin offers some explanation for how models arrive at their conclusions.

We concentrate on the “likely,” “leaning” and “undecided” states to help explain what states you may want to note when following tonight’s news coverage.

One other complication in the math: Electoral votes can be divided among candidates in Maine and Nebraska.

Here’s a look at the most recent projections from each model as of 6 p.m. Monday:

COOK POLITICAL REPORT FORECAST (as of Nov. 7)

Overall – Clinton 278 electoral votes to 214 for Trump

Last week– Clinton 293 electoral votes to 179 for Trump.

Up for grabs – 46 electoral votes (66 last week)

Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Maine (1) and Nebraska (1)

Last week – Florida (29), Ohio (18), Arizona (11), Iowa (6), Maine (1) and Nebraska (1).

Likely voting for Clinton – 65 electoral votes (55 last week)

Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Nevada (6) and New Hampshire (4)

Last week – Pennsylvania (20), North Carolina (15), Wisconsin (10), Nevada (6) and New Hampshire 4

Likely voting for Trump – 57 electoral votes (22 last week)

Ohio (18), Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Iowa (6) and Utah (6)

Last week – Georgia (16) and Utah (6)

THE CRYSTAL BALL 2016 ELECTORAL COLLEGE RATINGS (as of Nov. 7)

The Crystal Ball is produced by Larry Sabato and his team at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

Overall – Clinton 322 electoral votes to 216 for Trump

Last week – Clinton 293 electoral votes to 173 for Trump

Up for grabs – zero (72 last week)

Last week – Florida (29), Ohio (18), Arizona (11), Iowa (6), Utah (6), Maine (1) and Nebraska (1)

Leaning for Clinton – 90 electoral votes (21 last week)

Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Nevada (6) and New Hampshire (4)

Last week – North Carolina (15) and Nevada (6)

Leaning for Trump – 43 (16 last week)

Ohio (18), Arizona (11), Iowa (6), Utah (6), Maine (1) and Nebraska (1)

Last week – Georgia (16)

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT POLLS-PLUS FORECAST (updated hourly)

FiveThirtyEight combines polling data with information about the economy and voting histories. It defines a state as a tossup if no candidate has a better than 60 percent chance of winning the state.

Overall – Clinton 272 electoral votes to 215 for Trump

Last week – Clinton 272 electoral votes to 191 for Trump

Up for grabs – 51 electoral votes (75 last week)

Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Nevada (6) and Maine (1)

Last week – Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Iowa (6), Nevada (6) and Maine (1)

Likely voting for Clinton – 33 electoral votes (13 last week)

Pennsylvania (20), Colorado (9) and New Hampshire (4)

Last week – Colorado (9) and New Hampshire (4)

Likely voting for Trump – 39 electoral votes (21 last week)

Ohio (18), Arizona (11), Iowa (6), Alaska (3) and Nebraska (1)

Last week – Arizona (11), Utah (6), Alaska (3) and Nebraska (1)

THE FIX ELECTORAL COLLEGE RATINGS (as of Nov. 4)

The Fix is produced by the political team at The Washington Post.

Overall – Clinton 290 electoral votes 209 for Trump

Last week – Clinton 294 electoral votes to 180 for Trump

Up for grabs – 39 electoral votes (64 last week)

Florida (29), Utah (6) and New Hampshire (4)

Last week – Florida (29), Ohio (18), Arizona (11) and Utah (6)

Likely voting for Clinton – 105 electoral votes (109 last week)

Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Nevada (6), New Mexico (5) and Maine (1)

Last week – Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Nevada (6), New Mexico (5), New Hampshire (4) and Maine (1)

Likely voting for Trump – 113 electoral votes (84 last week)

Texas (38), Ohio (18), Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Indiana (11), Missouri (10), Iowa (6) and Alaska (3)

Last week – Texas (38), Georgia (16), Indiana (11), Missouri (10), Iowa (6) and Alaska (3)

PREDICTWISE PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST (updates three times a day)

Overall – Clinton 322 electoral votes to 215 for Trump

Last week – Clinton 293 electoral votes to 215 for Trump

Up for grabs – zero electoral votes (30 last week)

Defined as meaning no candidate has a 60 percent or higher chance of winning the state.

Last week – Florida (29) and Maine (1)

Leaning for Clinton – 44 electoral votes (21 last week)

Defined as meaning no candidate has more than a 79.9 percent chance of winning the state.

Florida (29) and North Carolina (15)

Last week – North Carolina (15) and Nevada (6)

Leaning for Trump – 18 electoral votes (36 last week)

Ohio (18)

Last week – Ohio (18), Arizona (11), Iowa (6) and Nebraska (1)

REALCLEARPOLITICS

Overall – Clinton 203 electoral votes to 164 for Trump

Last week – Clinton 263 electoral votes to 164 for Trump

Up for grabs – 171 electoral votes (111 last week)

Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Arizona (11), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Mexico (5), New Hampshire (4) and Maine (3)

Last week – Florida (29), Ohio (18), Georgia (16), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), Nevada (6) and Maine (1)

Leaning for Clinton – 35 electoral votes (94 last week)

Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Connecticut (7), Oregon (7) and Maine (1)

Last week – Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Virginia (13), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Connecticut (7), Oregon (7), New Mexico (5), New Hampshire (4) and Maine (2)

Leaning for Trump – 9 electoral votes (74 last week)

South Carolina (9)

Last week – Texas (38), Indiana (11), Missouri (10), South Carolina (9) and Utah (6)

ROTHENBERG & GONZALES RATINGS (as of Nov. 3)

Overall – Clinton 323 electoral votes to 191 for Trump

Last week – Clinton 323 electoral votes to 191 for Trump

Up for grabs – 24 electoral votes (same as last week)

Ohio (18) and Iowa (6) (same as last week)

Likely voting for Clinton – 100 electoral votes (84 last week)

Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Wisconsin (10), Nevada (6) and New Hampshire (4)

Last week – Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), North Carolina (15), Wisconsin (10), Nevada (6) and New Hampshire (4)

Likely voting for Trump – 44 electoral votes (same as last week)

Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Indiana (11) and Utah (6) (same as last week)

UPSHOT PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST (updates three times a day)

The Upshot is produced by The New York Times, using polls, past election results and national polling.

Overall – Clinton 322 electoral votes to 198 for Trump

Last week – Clinton 322 electoral votes to 191 for Trump

Up for grabs – 18 electoral votes (25 last week)

Defined as meaning no candidate has a 60 percent or higher chance of winning the state.

Ohio (18)

Last week – Ohio (18), Iowa (6) and Nebraska (1)

Leaning for Clinton – 54 electoral votes (35 last week)

Defined as meaning no candidate more than a 79.9 percent chance of winning the state.

Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Nevada (6) and New Hampshire (4)

Last week – Florida (29) and Nevada (6)

Leaning for Trump – 30 electoral votes (34 last week)

Georgia (16), Iowa (6), Utah (6), Maine (1) and Nebraska (1)

Last week – Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Utah (6) and Maine (1)

 

 

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