At the risk of making a bad case of poll fever worse, more numbers have arrived. From the press release:
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is leading with likely voters in both Arizona and Texas but is neck-and-neck with Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in Georgia, according to three new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls…
In Georgia, Trump is ahead of Clinton just one point among likely voters, 45 percent to 44 percent, with Johnson holding eight percent support. (Jill Stein is not on the ballot in the state.) African Americans make up 29 percent of likely voters in Georgia, according to the poll, and they’re breaking for Clinton by a 91 percent to 6 percent margin.
Trump’s lead is an identical one point in a race without Johnson – Trump 47 percent, Clinton 46 percent.
The same NBC/WSJ/Marist poll has Georgia’s U.S. Senate race going into extra innings:
[I]ncumbent Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson is ahead of Democratic challenger Jim Barksdale by 11 points among likely voters, 48 percent to 37 percent, with Libertarian Allen Buckley getting 7 percent. If the winner doesn’t clear 50 percent in that Georgia race, the top-two finishers compete in a Jan. 10 runoff election.
The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls were conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 1. In Georgia, the poll interviewed 937 registered voters (plus-minus 3.2 percentage points) and 707 likely voters (plus-minus 3.7 percentage points).