Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump is building with 4 weeks to go

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With four weeks left in the campaign,
Democrat Hillary Clinton appeared to build on her lead over Republican Donald Trump in eight projection models assembled by the political website 270towin.com, plus RealClearPolitics.

Some of these models have not updated since last week’s roundup, and none of them could fully evaluate the results of Sunday night’s second presidential debate and other news events over that time.

The models give her a range from 253 to 341 electoral votes (205 to 322 last week). Trump’s scores on the models run from 165 to 198 (165 to 215). The magic number to win is 270.

The number of electoral votes in the tossup category range from zero to 113 (17 to 168 last week).

The models all rate states as “safe” for one candidate or the other, “likely” or “leaning,” or “undecided,” and they assess how many electoral votes each candidate has. For space purposes, this roundup highlights states that are “likely” or “leaning,” or “undecided.” That’s where you will most likely find the wiggle room. 270towin offers explanations for how the models arrive at their conclusions.

One other wrinkle: Electoral votes can be divided among candidates in Maine and Nebraska.

An updated version can be found here each Tuesday until Election Day, Nov. 8.

Here’s a look at the most recent projections from each model:

COOK POLITICAL REPORT FORECAST (as of Sept. 29)

Overall – Clinton 272 electoral votes to 197 for Trump

Up for grabs – 69 electoral votes

Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Nevada (6) and Nebraska (1)

Likely voting for Clinton – 59 electoral votes

Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9) and New Hampshire (4)

Likely voting for Trump – 34 electoral votes

Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Iowa (6) and Maine (1)

THE CRYSTAL BALL 2016 ELECTORAL COLLEGE RATINGS (as of Oct. 10)

The Crystal Ball is produced by Larry Sabato and his team at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

Overall – Clinton 341 electoral votes to 197 for Trump

Last week – Clinton 272 electoral votes to 215 for Trump

Up for grabs – No states currently fall in this category

Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Nevada (6) and Nebraska (1) all shifted to category of likely voting for Clinton.

Last week – 51 electoral votes

Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Nevada (6) and Nebraska (1)

Likely voting for Clinton – 86 electoral votes (72 last week)

Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Wisconsin (10), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Maine (3), Nebraska (1)

Last week – Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9) and New Hampshire (4).

Likely voting for Trump – 24 (25 last week)

Arizona (11), Iowa (6), Utah (6) Maine (1)

Last week – Ohio (18), Iowa (6) and Maine (1).

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT POLLS-PLUS FORECAST (updated hourly)

Overall – Clinton 307 electoral votes to 190 for Trump

Last week – Clinton 272 electoral votes to 198 for Trump

Up for grabs – 41 electoral votes (68 last week)

FiveThirtyEight defines a state as a tossup if no candidate has a better than 60 percent chance of winning the state.

Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Iowa (6), Maine (1) and Nebraska (1)

Last week – Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15) and Nevada (6)

Likely voting for Clinton – 39 electoral votes (72 last week)

Florida (29), Nevada (6) and New Hampshire (4)

Last week – Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), New Hampshire (4) and Maine (3)

Likely voting for Trump – 30 electoral votes (19 last week)

Georgia (16), Arizona (11) and Alaska (3)

Last week – Arizona (11), Iowa (6), Maine (1) and Nebraska (1)

THE FIX ELECTORAL COLLEGE RATINGS (as of Oct. 3)

The Fix is produced by the political team at The Washington Post.

Overall – Clinton 253 electoral votes to 197 for Trump

Last week – Clinton 273 electoral votes to 197 for Trump

Up for grabs – 88 electoral votes (68 last week)

Pennsylvania (20) joined Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15) and Nevada (6) on the list

Likely voting for Clinton – 57 electoral votes (72 last week)

Michigan (16), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), New Mexico (5) and New Hampshire (4)

Last week – Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), New Mexico (5) and New Hampshire (4)

Likely voting for Trump – 33 electoral votes

Last week – 33 electoral votes

Georgia (16), Arizona (11) and Iowa (6) hold their positions

PREDICTWISE PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST (updates three times a day)

Overall – Clinton 341 to 190 for Trump

Last week – Clinton 322 to 192 for Trump

Up for grabs – 6 electoral votes (24 last week)

Defined as meaning no candidate has a 60 percent or higher chance of winning the state.

Iowa (6)

Last week – Ohio (18) and Iowa (6)

Leaning for Clinton – 40 electoral votes (50 last week)

Defined as meaning no candidate has more than a 79.9 percent chance of winning the state.

Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Nevada (6) and Nebraska (1)

Last week – Florida (29), North Carolina (15) and Nevada (6)

Leaning for Trump – 11 electoral votes (13 last week)

Arizona (11)

Last week – Arizona (11), Maine (1) and Nebraska (1)

REALCLEARPOLITICS

Overall – Clinton 260 electoral votes to 165 for Trump

Last week – Clinton 205 electoral votes to 165 for Trump

Up for grabs – 113 electoral votes (168 last week)

Florida (29), Ohio (18), Georgia (16), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11), Minnesota (10), Iowa (6), Nevada (6) and Maine (2)

Last week – Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), Maine (2).

Leaning for Clinton – 98 electoral votes (70 last week)

Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), New Jersey (14), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), New Mexico (5) and New Hampshire (4)

Last week – Illinois (20), New Jersey (14), Virginia (13), Connecticut (7), Oregon (7), New Mexico (5) and New Hampshire (4)

Leaning for Trump – 69 electoral votes (same as last week)

No movement by Texas (38), Indiana (11), Missouri (10), South Carolina (9) and Maine (1)

ROTHENBERG & GONZALES RATINGS (as of Sept. 30)

Overall – Clinton 279 electoral votes to 191 for Trump

Up for grabs – 68 electoral votes

Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15) and Iowa (6)

Likely voting for Clinton – 62 electoral votes

Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Nevada (6) and New Hampshire (4)

Likely voting for Trump – 27 electoral votes

Georgia (16) and Arizona (11)

UPSHOT PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST (updates three times a day)

The Upshot is produced by The New York Times.

Overall – Clinton 322 electoral votes to 198 for Trump

Last week – Clinton 307 electoral votes to 192 for Trump

Up for grabs – 18 electoral votes (39 last week)

Defined as meaning no candidate has a 60 percent or higher chance of winning the state.

Ohio (18)

Last week – Ohio (18), North Carolina (15) and Iowa (6)

Leaning for Clinton – 50 electoral votes (54 last week)

Defined as meaning no candidate more than a 79.9 percent chance of winning the state.

Florida (29), North Carolina (15) and Nevada (6)

Last week – Florida (29), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9) and Nevada (6)

Leaning for Trump – 6 electoral votes (29 last week)

Iowa (6)

Last week – Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Maine (1) and Nebraska (1)


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