Five weeks out, projection models give edge to Clinton in race for White House

WASHINGTON, DC - OCTOBER 03: The White House is seen during the South by South Lawn, a White House festival of ideas, art, and action, October 3, 2016 at the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC. The White House hosts the event to call on Americans "to discover their own way to make a positive difference in our country." (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

WASHINGTON, DC – OCTOBER 03: The White House is seen during the South by South Lawn, a White House festival of ideas, art, and action, October 3, 2016 at the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC. The White House hosts the event to call on Americans “to discover their own way to make a positive difference in our country.” (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

With five weeks left in the campaign, Democrat Hillary Clinton holds the edge over Republican Donald Trump in eight projection models assembled by the political website 270towin.com, plus RealClearPolitics.

The models, as of 6 p.m. Monday, give her a range from 205 to 322 electoral votes. Trump’s scores on the models run from 165 to 215. The magic number to win is 270.

The number of electoral votes in the tossup category range from 17 to 168.

The models all rate states as “safe” for one candidate or the other, “likely” or “undecided,” and assess how many electoral votes each candidate has. 270towin offers explanations for how each model arrives at its conclusions.

The various models help explain why the candidates are campaigning where they are.

One other wrinkle: Electoral votes can be divided among candidates in Maine and Nebraska.

An updated version can be found here each Tuesday until Election Day, Nov. 8.

Here’s a look at the most recent projections from each model:

Cook Political Report Forecast (as of Sept. 29)

Overall – Clinton 272 electoral votes to 197 for Trump

Up for grabs – 69 electoral votes

Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Nevada (6) and Nebraska (1)

Likely voting for Clinton – 59 electoral votes

Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9) and New Hampshire (4)

Likely voting for Trump – 34 electoral votes

Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Iowa (6) and Maine (1)

The Crystal Ball 2016 Electoral College Ratings (as of Sept. 27)

The Crystal Ball is produced by Larry Sabato and his team at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

Overall – Clinton 272 electoral votes to 215 for Trump

Up for grabs – 51 electoral votes

Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Nevada (6) and Nebraska (1).

Likely voting for Clinton – 72 electoral votes

Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9) and New Hampshire (4).

Likely voting for Trump – 25 electoral votes

Ohio (18), Iowa (6) and Maine (1).

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast (updated hourly)

FiveThirtyEight defines a state as a tossup if no candidate has a better than 60 percent chance of winning the state.

Overall – Clinton 272 electoral votes to 198 for Trump

Up for grabs – 68 electoral votes

Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15) and Nevada (6)

Likely voting for Clinton – 72 electoral votes

Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), New Hampshire (4) and Maine (3)

Likely voting for Trump – 19 electoral votes

Arizona (11), Iowa (6), Maine (1) and Nebraska (1)

The Fix Electoral College Ratings (as of Sept. 19)

The Fix is produced by the political team at The Washington Post.

Overall – Clinton 273 electoral votes to 197 for Trump

Up for grabs – 68 electoral votes

Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15) and Nevada (6)

Likely voting for Clinton – 72 electoral votes

Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9) and New Hampshire (4)

Likely voting for Trump – 33 electoral votes

Georgia (16), Arizona (11) and Iowa (6)

PredictWise Presidential Forecast (updates three times a day)

Overall – Clinton 322 to 192 for Trump

Up for grabs – 24 electoral votes

Defined as meaning no candidate has a 60 percent or higher chance of winning the state.

Ohio (18) and Iowa (6).

Leaning for Clinton – 50 electoral votes

Defined as meaning no candidate more than a 79.9 percent chance of winning the state.

Florida (29), North Carolina (15) and Nevada (6)

Leaning for Trump – 13 electoral votes

Arizona (11), Maine (1) and Nebraska (1)

RealClearPolitics

Overall – Clinton 205 to 165 for Trump

Up for grabs – 168 electoral votes

Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), Maine (2).

Leaning for Clinton – 70 electoral votes

Illinois (20), New Jersey (14), Virginia (13), Connecticut (7), Oregon (7), New Mexico (5) and New Hampshire (4)

Leaning for Trump – 69 electoral votes

Texas (38), Indiana (11), Missouri (10), South Carolina (9) and Maine (1)

Rothenberg & Gonzales Ratings (as of Sept. 30)

Overall – Clinton 279 electoral votes to 191 for Trump

Up for grabs – 68 electoral votes

Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15) and Iowa (6)

Likely voting for Clinton – 62 electoral votes

Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Nevada (6) and New Hampshire (4)

Likely voting for Trump – 27 electoral votes

Georgia (16) and Arizona (11)

Upshot Presidential Forecast (updates three times a day)

This Upshot is produced by The New York Times.

Overall – Clinton 307 electoral votes to 192 for Trump

Up for grabs – 39 electoral votes

Defined as meaning no candidate has a 60 percent or higher chance of winning the state.

Ohio (18), North Carolina (15) and Iowa (6)

Leaning for Clinton – 54 electoral votes

Defined as meaning no candidate more than a 79.9 percent chance of winning the state.

Florida (29), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9) and Nevada (6)

Leaning for Trump – 29 electoral votes

Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Maine (1) and Nebraska (1)


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