Last week’s AJC poll that showed Democrat Hillary Clinton with a slight lead over Republican Donald Trump continues to make a stir in the political world.
Democrats have revived – but does it ever really stop? — their talk of turning a red state blue. Libertarians point to the double-digit performance of Gary Johnson.
One of the more astute observations about the newspaper survey comes from fivethirtyeight.com, which continues to project Trump’s likelihood of winning Georgia in November at somewhere between 55 and 72 percent.
So we’re still not likely to become a bona fide battleground state, writes 538’s Harry Enten. But Georgia could become one of Clinton’s in-case-of-emergency-break-glass states. From the website:
[T]he mere fact that Georgia has more than a minuscule chance of determining who wins the election is remarkable. We ran the different scenarios in which Georgia proves crucial in Clinton’s winning, and they all seem to have a fairly familiar theme…
In these maps, Georgia is part of a “New South” back-up plan for Clinton if Trump’s plan to win states in the Midwest and Northeast is successful. In these examples, you’d imagine Trump appealing to white voters without a college degree in states such as Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Clinton then counters these victories by appealing to voters in the more diverse Southern states with growing populations, including Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia. All of these states are at least one-third nonwhite.
In keeping with that theme, this would be a significant development:
But we’re told by Hillary Clinton allies and Georgia Democratic officials that Todd’s pronouncement was a bit premature. The Clinton campaign hasn’t yet staffed up here — yet.
An independent conservative candidate for president is emerging this morning, according to Morning Joe.
Scarborough said McMullin has the backing of “key” financial contributors in the Republican Party.
It will be exceedingly difficult for any new candidates for president to get much traction with roughly 91 days to go before the election. Deadlines to get on the ballot in many major states are fast approaching — and more than half have already passed.
Speaking of the “Never Trump” holdouts, some are trying again on another front. The Washington Post is reporting that members of the “Free the Delegates” movement from the convention are petitioning the Republican National Committee to call an emergency meeting to strip the New Yorker of the party’s nomination with roughly 90 days until the election.
They’re unlikely to succeed. Here’s more from the Post:
Party rules dictate that members from at least 16 states can compel RNC Chairman Reince Priebus to call an emergency meeting, which he would need to convene within 10 days. At the meeting, these activists want RNC members to invoke Rule 9, which lays out how to nominate a new presidential candidate in the event of a resignation, death or other circumstance.
According to the party rulebook, the RNC is “authorized and empowered to fill any and all vacancies which may occur by reason of death, declination, or otherwise of the Republican candidate for President of the United States or the Republican candidate for Vice President of the United States.” If the nominee is removed, the RNC could opt to hold a new convention or select a new candidate by holding a vote among themselves.
Georgia is one of 21 states that does not require its members of the electoral college to adhere to the results of the popular vote in their state. And after elector Baoky Vu openly raised the prospect that he might not cast his ballot for Donald Trump – and then promptly resigned his post under pressure – some have rumbled about a change to the law next year.
Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp, who oversees the state’s elections, said he was open to the possibility.
“That would be a legislative decision. But in a lot of ways that would make sense,” he said. “It was set up that way, at the time, to have some objective balance there.”
Over at Atlanta Jewish Times, author and freelance editor Laura Silverman says the campaign Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has sparked the entry of anti-Semitism into her online world:
I wasn’t ignorant. I knew the atrocities of the past, knew Jews were still targets here and around the world, but I never experienced it. I grew up in an Atlanta suburb. There were Jewish kids in all of my public school classes, so not only did I never experience anti-Semitism, but I also never experienced the unsettling feeling of being “the other.”
Then a month ago Donald Trump tweeted a graphic using the Star of David. You probably saw it. Hillary Clinton. Piles of cash in the background. The caption inside the star read, “Most Corrupt Candidate Ever.”
Something out of Oregon that bears watching, from the Los Angeles Times:
In front of a packed and cheering audience …, Gov. Kate Brown signed a first-in-the-nation bill to automatically register all eligible Oregonians to vote when they obtain or renew a driver’s license or state identification card.
Those who are registered through the new process will be notified by mail and will be given three weeks to take themselves off the voting rolls. If they do not opt out, the secretary of state’s office will mail them a ballot automatically 20 days before any election.