Georgia Republicans appear to be coalescing around the presumptive presidential nomination of Donald Trump. From a just-published survey by Public Policy Polling of North Carolina:
[T]he prospect of Democrats flipping the state blue in the Presidential race may have diminished with the unification of Republican voters around Donald Trump in the last month. Trump leads Clinton 45/38, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 6% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2%. Georgia’s a state where Trump is unpopular (44/49 favorability), but Clinton is another degree more unpopular (33/60 favorability).
Clinton and Trump draw pretty identical support within their own parties. Clinton’s up 86/3 with Democrats, while Trump’s up 84/3 with Republicans. That inherently would give Trump the advantage in Georgia, given the state’s overall Republican lean. But beyond that Trump also leads 37/30 with independents, with Johnson at 13% and Stein at 1%. The racial divide in Georgia is massive with Clinton leading 80/2 among black voters, but Trump having a 67/17 advantage with white ones.
Clinton’s numbers in Georgia fit into the general pattern we’ve been finding of her poll numbers across the country shaping up very similarly to how Barack Obama did in 2012…
Only a few weeks ago, a statewide AJC survey showed Trump and Clinton in a statistical dead heat. But here is an important note for Democrats in Georgia contained within the PPP survey:
Georgia’s a state where Bernie Sanders doesn’t do any better in match ups with Trump than Clinton does. He trails 46/36, with Gary Johnson at 5% and Jill Stein at 1%. Sanders is only slightly less unpopular with voters in the state than Clinton, with a 34/55 favorability.
And a little something for Republicans:
Newt Gingrich is a decently popular figure in Georgia, with a 44/36 favorability rating. But he actually hurts Trump in scenarios where he’s polled as a hypothetical running mate, taking Trump’s lead over both Clinton and Sanders down to 5 points at 47/42. Voters who are undecided in the standard Clinton/Trump match up move to Clinton by 20 points when Gingrich is introduced into the mix as Trump’s running mate.