New York – Forget New York. The most important race left on the primary calendar may be Indiana’s May 3 contest. That’s what the New York Times’ Nate Cohn posits in an analysis of the upcoming contests.
With polls showing Republican front-runner Donald Trump with hefty leads in New York’s Tuesday primary and the upcoming East Coast contests next week, the analysis found that the only two toss-ups remaining are the race for the 57 delegates in Indiana and the June contest for 172 delegates in California. And Trump needs every delegate he can squeeze to reach the 1,237 margin he needs to clinch the nomination. From the story:
But even though Indiana may be pivotal — it awards its delegates on a winner-take-all basis by congressional district and statewide — the state is a big mystery because there hasn’t been a single poll there. That’s not just because of East Coast media bias (although it may be part of it); it’s a tough state to poll. Indiana law prohibits automated polling, the go-to method for many low-cost pollsters.
The state does not have party registration, which makes it modestly more challenging and costly for pollsters to conduct surveys of the voter registration file. Many of the prolific public pollsters employ the random-digit dialing method, like Quinnipiac, and have no history in the state. I suspect that a few pollsters will ultimately field surveys, but there won’t be many.
Could that also help explain why Trump’s campaign announced a rally in Indianapolis Wednesday?
Back in New York, Trump’s supporters shrugged off his reference Monday in Buffalo to “7-Eleven” instead of “9/11” when invoking the terror attacks. He’s leading by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich by double-digits in most polls and has a shot at topping 50 percent across the state to nab all 95 GOP delegates.
After the businessman didn’t correct himself, Twitter had quite the day. Here’s a sampling:
Watch it here:
Insider’s note: A version of this post ran in the Morning Jolt.