Posted: 11:13 am Saturday, August 23rd, 2014

Flipping Georgia’s races: New WSB-Landmark poll puts Jason Carter, Michelle Nunn at top 

By Jim Galloway

Early this week, we told you of a SurveyUSA poll, commissioned by 11Alive, that placed Georgia’s races for governor and U.S. Senate in terms that mimicked past post-2002 cycles.

In the race for governor:

– Republican incumbent Nathan Deal, 48 percent;

– Democrat Jason Carter, 39 percent;

– and Libertarian Andrew Hunt, 4 percent.

In the U.S. Senate contest:

– Republican David Perdue, 48 percent;

– Democrat Michelle Nunn, 41 percent;

– and Libertarian Amanda Swafford, 3 percent.

But now we have a Landmark Communications survey, commissioned by Channel 2 Action News, released only four days later, that essentially flips those results. But the survey tracks closely with a previous WSB/Landmark poll from July. Check out the crosstabs here.

In the governor’s race, according to Landmark:

– Carter, 44 percent;

– Deal, 40 percent;

– and Hunt, 4 percent;

In the race for U.S. Senate:

– Nunn, 47 percent;

– Perdue, 40 percent;

– and Swafford, 3 percent.

Margin of error is roughly the same in both surveys – +/- 4.2 and 4 percent, respectively. But there are significant methodological differences between the two polls. The SurveyUSA poll was a combination of automated calls to land lines, and an Internet questionnaire conducted via smart phones or other devices.

Updated at 10 p.m. Sunday: We originally reported that Landmark Communications conducted live interviews via landlines. Mark Rountree, head of Landmark Communications, sent us this note on Sunday:

“I do want to clear up one item: our (Landmark) poll was a hybrid of IVR (recorded) and live calling, not just live calling. We dialed using live interviewers to cell phones, while IVR was used for landlines”

There are also some significant weighting differences. The SurveyUSA survey presumed a November turnout in which men make up a majority of voters, and placed African-American turnout at 26 percent.

The Landmark poll places black turnout at 29 percent, more in line with the historical trend. It also presumes a majority of female voters.

Below is the memo that Landmark’s Mark Rountree sent us:

KEY FINDINGS

#1. GOVERNOR — Democrat Senator Jason Carter continues to lead Republican Governor Nathan Deal, though the margin is shrinking. Today Carter leads Deal by a margin of 44-40%, with Libertarian Andrew Hunt carrying 4% of the vote.

However, Carter’s lead has shrunk from an eight (+8) percentage-point lead on July 15 (49% to 41%) down to a lead of just four percent (+4) today.

GENDER DIFFERENCES: Sen. Carter carries 50% of female voters but only 38% of male voters, while Governor Deal wins 47% of men but only 34% of women voters.

REGIONAL DIFFERENCES: Governor Deal leads 42-40% outside of Metro Atlanta, while Sen. Carter leads in Metro Atlanta by 51-37%.

AGE DIFFERENCES: Governor Deal leads among younger voters and older voters, while Sen. Carter leads among voters who are in the 40-64 age range. Deal carries the 18-39 age range by a 45-35% margin and the 65%+ age group by 46-40%. However, Carter leads among voters in the 40-64 age range by a 50-36% margin.

#2. U.S. SENATOR— Democrat Michelle Nunn continues to lead Republican David Perdue in the Georgia U.S. Senate race. Nunn leads Perdue 47% to 40%, with 3% of voters voting for Libertarian candidate Amanda Swafford.

Men support Perdue by a 47-41% margin (+6), while women give Nunn an 18 percent lead (+18), 52-34%.

#3. POSSIBILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR RUNOFF ELECTIONS: This is the third poll conducted by Landmark Communications within a month concluding that no candidate for either Georgia Governor or U.S. Senator has reached 50% or more of the vote.

U.S. Senator Saxby Chambliss was thrown into a runoff election in 2008, though the incumbent ultimately prevailed and returned to the Senate. Republican State Senator Paul Coverdell pulled Democratic Senator Wyche Fowler in to a runoff election in 1992, with Coverdell ultimately winning the office in that runoff.

While it is too early to conclude that there will be a runoff election for Governor or for U.S. Senate, there is clear and recent precedence for these elections. Each passing week in which no candidate has crossed the 50%+1 mark brings the increased possibility of a runoff election for each office.

#4. PRESIDENT OBAMA’S HANDLING OF IRAQ SITUATION When voters were asked whether they approve or disapprove of the way President Barack Obama is handling the situation in Iraq, Georgians expressed disapproval by a 45-39% margin (-6%).

There is a significant difference between races on the issue of Iraq: fully 62% of white voters said they disapprove of the President’s handling of the situation in Iraq, while 67% of black voters said they approve.

Following is the methodology, as provided by Landmark:

Landmark Communications, Inc. conducted this survey of 600 likely Georgia voters on August 20th and 21st, 2014. Telephone interviews were conducted by landline (80%) and mobile phone (20%). The phone list was created and randomized from Landmark Communications’ own statewide Georgia voter database. Only completed interviews were included in the final report. Responses were weighted by age, gender and race to reflect the actual demographic make-up of a general election in Georgia in a gubernatorial election year. The margin of error is +/-4 percent. The survey was commissioned by WSB-TV Channel 2 Atlanta.

566 comments
EdUktr
EdUktr


"Michelle Nunn's chance of winning is only 12 percent."

—the New York Times this past Wednesday: http://tinyurl.com/ke8bb64

Democrats badly needed some upbeat news. Landmark provides it on cue. (Where there's a will, and lots of cash—there's always a way.)

MiltonMan
MiltonMan

I guess CNN helped with this poll before it announced the soon-to-be-coming layoffs.

MiltonMan
MiltonMan

Libs like Jimmie love polls.

JamesJordan
JamesJordan

I'm calling BS on this one, but hey, we'll see. I just pray that my fellow Georigan's will remember the damage that Carter senior caused and send this younger one packing. Then again, with all of the Liberals that have migrated down here from the north who the heck knows.

72GDawg
72GDawg

I am a bit skeptical whenever I see the results of these live telephone interview polls for the simple reason that I have never once been called by a political pollster on either my landline or mobile phone. The telemarketers, however, seem to have no trouble at all finding me seven days a week.

EdUktr
EdUktr

Mr. Rountree, the AJC is a partisan Democrat newspaper. And your company regularly produces polling results which are at odds with most other pollsters—and favor Democrat candidates.

So save your "explanations." Readers can deduce what's going on. 

Jim Galloway
Jim Galloway moderator

Jim, thanks for reporting our survey results. There is often a good bit of confusion around polls that are publicly released. There is also suspicion when polls are released - which is actually a healthy thing. 

I do want to clear up one item: our (Landmark) poll was a hybrid of IVR (recorded) and live calling, not just live calling. We dialed using live interviewers to cell phones, while IVR was used for landlines. 

Some key findings: 

This survey is different from other surveys in that ours was based on what we believe to be a more accurate definition of what the final electorate will look like. The Landmark survey projects a 29% African American electorate, which is pretty consistent in Georgia (it was exactly, or very close to, 29% in 2008, 2010 and 2012). Other surveys I've seen were based on 24-26% of the electorate being African American. This matters because, essentially, African Americans have a voting block that has given nearly monolithic Democratic voters for many years in Georgia, giving Democrats more than 90% of the vote. So our poll reflects this. Over the long run, Republicans must change this fact if they are to remain a majority in statewide elections.

Landmark also projects a majority female electorate on Election Day. The SurveyUSA poll projects a 52% male electorate, despite the fact that about 55% of voters in Georgia are female. This matters because female voters are currently choosing the Democratic candidates by a double digit margin.  The Republican candidates have much room to make up with this demographic group in 2014.

Governor Deal and David Perdue are winning among voters under age 40 and over age 65, but Nunn/Carter are carrying voters in the 40-64 age range (we offered three age ranges for respondents to select). 

Contrary to some conclusions by some posters, this poll is not a projection of who will win the elections.  It is not a projection that Governor Deal (or Mr. Perdue) will win or lose -- this is a snapshot of a two-day poll in August.  Frankly, if anything, our survey finds that runoff elections are currently becoming more likely.  

Posters here may find the cross tabs and more on key findings at www.landmarkcommunications.net

Posters may also find more information about more polls (and, if they provide it, their weighting) at www.realclearpolitics.com

Regards,

Mark Rountree

President,

Landmark Communications, Inc.

bigdoggie1
bigdoggie1

"Gonna turn your red state blue!!" Oh, to dump "Raw" Deal and put a Nunn back in the Senate...be still my heart!

robertbyrd
robertbyrd

TSA was allowing illegals to board planes with only an appearance ticket that can be easily copied and falsified.

Hector Garza, a spokesman for the National Border Patrol Council (NBPC) told Darby that Notice to Appear forms can “easily be reproduced or manipulated on any home computer. The Notice to Appear form has no photo, anyone can make one and manipulate one. They do not have any security features, no watermark, nothing. They are simply printed on standard copy paper based on the information the illegal alien says is the truth.”

TSA attempted to cover it up and keep the information from the public by releasing a statement that an appearance ticket is not an acceptable ID for boarding a plane.

The TSA lied and said that Darby’s information was “completely wrong”.

Since then, the TSA has issued a letter admitting that they have indeed allowed illegals to board without ID. It should be mentioned that this would not be done without White House authorization.

The TSA is an arm of the executive branch.


Just think, Americans need an ID to fly and many American women get groped by the TSA in the process, so much so that the Obama admin is getting sued in an FOIA request so we can get a handle on it.  But we do not need an ID to vote or fly if we come into the country illegally.  I just don't see how any America loving person thinks this is how it should work !

td1234
td1234

A vote for Nunn is a vote for Obama and the Obama agenda. 

StraightNoChaser
StraightNoChaser

@4williecVery hard to believe the samples taken were equitable and accurate...don't forget, they also said Perdue had no shot in the primary based on their polls"... Don't forget Perdue has a tea party problem.  Instead of concerning yourself with polls you need to be wondering how and if the tea party will vote for Perdue.  They do not like TARP, so they say, and Perdue loved the $29 trillion dollar Wall Street Bailout.   We will see in November if the tea party really is a lying, obfuscating, wart on American politics and voters across America will  remove them for once and for all in any upcoming elections. The tea parties credibility is riding on all elections in November the democrat's is not.

Bernie31
Bernie31

Yer know God is trying ta send all of Us a message. De Big one in California is not too far off now. Yer might wake up one morning in de not too distant future and Las Vegas jest may be Ocean front Property. Strange thangs happin in Mexico. Hurge craters running fer miles from de North ta de South de same way in California dis morning. Go check it out dey gots Photos fer yer ta see. 


Now if dat happen dem Bad Guys show is coming...cause we goin be MO upset and MO SKERRED about dat lost real estate. De Bad Guys ain't takin No Vacation. Dey is planning round de clock. We gots ta git our house in order befor dey do it fer Us. 

I don't thank yer goin like yer women folk covered UP! De music and dancin is goin by de wayside. de drankin and de smokin too! dey plans ta make you in dey own image. yer gonna look funny always draped in a sheet and towel on yer head wit a beard.


No MO hoods wit Eyes! yer goin ta be eatin dirt...jest like dey is doin now.


Now yer folks need Healthcare Now...Yer Po folks need Food and de children need educating. de old peoples is suffering, de disabled and handicapped dey is hidin. De Veterans, yer know dey been treated. AWFUL!


Now misery is not a republican or Democratic feeling...it jest HURTS and Bad! fer everybody. Yer republican brothers have been sum bad eggs since W. Left. Ain't yer had enough? we tried dey way and it ain't good. Dey is real mean ta everybody but dey selves!


Time ta make a change.....its either DEM or US.


what yer goin do?

robo2000
robo2000

what a joke, they must have called 10 people in the most democratic area in the state.

Nobody_Knows
Nobody_Knows

@MiltonMan 

Milti BOY is butt hurt because he read something different than he heard on Fox or heard on talk radio.

SSDD for him.  

honested
honested

@MiltonMan 

Blame who you will.

Georgians are tired of a crooked voter and we don't want a Senator that has to hide behind a gate.

STHornet1990
STHornet1990

@MiltonMan Runnin' skeered I see. Blaming the messenger since it does not agree with your message.

JoshRenfroe
JoshRenfroe

I doubt GA being near the bottom on employment and education has anything to do with Jimmy Carter.

Why is the rest of the nation experiencing recovery while states like GA and Mississippi remain behind?

Caius
Caius

@72GDawg 

72G I get called by pollsters several times a year.  The last one was on the Purdue/Kingston runoff.

What is the trend of the polls?  Being up in one poll and down in another is not a trend.

If Nunn can get 54% of the ladies vote, I predict she will win.

 

JoshRenfroe
JoshRenfroe

Must be part of that liberal socialist Muslim black conspiracy everyone's been talking about.

Mark.Rountree
Mark.Rountree

@EdUktr Ed, thanks for taking the time to comment. I am sure in your detailed research in supporting your statement, you also saw these links to these polls, right? (may have to cut and paste)


**Landmark Poll- Deal leads in GOP runoff by 2% -- (day before the runoff election, which Deal then won by 2%):

http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2010/08/09/landmark-poll-nathan-deal-and-karen-handel-in-dead-heat/


**Landmark Poll: Deal up over Barnes 49-42% with a week left: (Deal ultimately won 53%) http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/ga/georgia_governor_deal_vs_barnes-1316.html


**Landmark Poll released day before election: Deal leads Barnes 47-41%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/ga/georgia_governor_deal_vs_barnes-1316.html


**...and the previous poll resulted in our firm making this on-air projection of Deal carrying 52% of the vote on Election Day over Barnes (Deal ultimately won 53%).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axlTz4b8kmU


**Landmark Poll, May of this year: Loudermilk over Barr 

http://www.peachpundit.com/2014/04/21/loudermilk-has-slight-edge-over-former-congressman-barr-in-latest-poll/


**Landmark Poll, May of this year: Rick Allen in majority position to win primary without runoff: 

http://zpolitics.com/new-poll-in-georgias-12th/


We also polled 53% for Austin Scott over former Congressman Jim Marshall -- 53% for Scott on election day.


And more. Perhaps go to www.landmarkcommunications.net and read more. 

Best regards,

Mark Rountree

President, 

Landmark Communications, Inc.


JoshRenfroe
JoshRenfroe

Translation: if it's not saying the same nonsense as Fox News, then it partisan.

honested
honested

@EdUktr 

You left out an important term.......'at odds with most, usually inaccurate, pollsters.

See, when properly stated you almost make sense.

StraightNoChaser
StraightNoChaser

@robertbyrd Rubik's Cube is a 3 D combination puzzle that was re-invented in 1989 by the Bush administration.  TSA was one of many combinations that was added to it.

bigdoggie1
bigdoggie1

@robertbyrd What the hell does any of your comment have to do with the article. P.S. It was W, the village idiot, who created the TSA!

Likewise
Likewise

If the Obama agenda includes the S&P 500 hitting record highs, I'm all for it.  Like they say, vote Democratic to live like a Republican. 

consumedconsumer
consumedconsumer

@td1234 i thought obama didn't have an agenda . . . couldn't lead . . . could only golf . . . so what you afraid of?

bigdoggie1
bigdoggie1

@td1234 That's all you got!?! You sound like one of Perdue's ads; nothing offered except "Oooo, she likes Obama!" Keep your crackers dumbed down, ignorant and fearful of all that isn't white! You are part of the problem!

CherokeeCounty
CherokeeCounty

@td1234 Yep.

And that agenda is:

Freedom, preventing the theocrats from telling you who to marry and how to live your life.

Lower taxes for the middle class, not the 1%.

Health security for everyone.

Economic growth, not obstruction and unemployment.

4williec
4williec

@StraightNoChaser  Tea Party member here for a long time...I can only speak for myself in saying that there is no question that the lesser of evils concept is once again in play and I, and likely most informed Tea Party members and conservatives, will vote for Perdue.

td1234
td1234

@EdUktr I wonder what the NY Times sees to place the chances so low. Nate Silver at least gives her a 25% chance. 

StraightNoChaser
StraightNoChaser

@honested @EdUktr What Ed does not like or want to hear is what I have been telling him for days that "no poll is 100% accurate of who will win the elections".  So in his eyes if it's not a slam dunk for republicans it's junk science.

td1234
td1234

@CherokeeCounty @td1234 Nope wrong again, that agenda is:


Higher taxes

More spending

Weaker military

More progress towards socialism

bigdoggie1
bigdoggie1

@4williec @StraightNoChaser Informed Tea Party member: oxymoronic at it's best! P.S. Teapublicanism has only existed since 2009, when the brown guy won the election!

You ilk is toast...brown toast! Bwhahahahahaha!!!

honested
honested

@4williec @StraightNoChaser 

What about the beliefs of any misinformed teaklanner is the 'lesser of two evils'.

Blind ignorance and refusal to accept reality as espoused by the teaklan is evil enough in itself.

StraightNoChaser
StraightNoChaser

@4williec @StraightNoChaser  Lesser of two evils my a$$.  Two words... pipe dreamn  oun  1.  an unattainable or fanciful hope or scheme.  In the words of your alcoholic leader John Boehner "The American People" are sick of the tea parties BS. 

honested
honested

@td1234 @CherokeeCounty 

If only you were correct td, the election would be an overwhelming victory for the Democrats.

But since that is just made up BS, I'll take anything that reverses the wrong course the State of Georgia is on today!!

td1234
td1234

@StraightNoChaser Most of America is sick and tired of both parties but they will reelect their own Democrat or Republican member in the HOR's by a 95% plus margin. 

td1234
td1234

@honested You are going to be real upset the day after the election. 

StraightNoChaser
StraightNoChaser

@td1234 @StraightNoChaser The tea party has a serious credibility issue across the country .  Matt Bevin, businessman was backed by tea party groups in Kentucky's Senate race, For years Kentucky Tea Party groups have slammed Republican incumbent Sen. Mitch McConnell for voting in favor of thE TARP proposal six years ago. Bevin also criticized the senator's vote on numerous occasions despite news that Veracity Fund held stock in nearly a dozen companies that received TARP funding.  Bevin denied it the tea party continued to back him but the Reagan Alumnus was skeptical and he lost.  Just like I said the tea parties days are numbered.  They are no more than liars who hate the president for reasons other than a Wall Street bailout.  Their Chicken George's (roots) and Steven's (Django) do not impress or fool anyone they have always been in abundance in American Politics.