Posted: 2:50 pm Friday, July 25th, 2014

Who’s winning the Senate race? Pick your poll 

By Daniel Malloy

In the first public polling we have seen since David Perdue’s runoff win on Tuesday, Rasmussen Reports put out a robo-call survey today showing Perdue leading Democrat Michelle Nunn 46 percent to 40 percent.

Meanwhile, Landmark Communications showed Nunn leading 47 percent to Perdue’s 43 percent.

Rasmussen, whose results tend to be Republican-leaning, reports their methodology like so:

The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Georgia was conducted on July 23-24, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

The Landmark poll info comes from this tweet by Channel 2 Action News’ Lori Geary:

If and when we get the crosstabs, we will share them. We suspect differing projections for the minority share of the electorate this fall.

UPDATE 6:55 p.m.: The Rasmussen poll has a sample that is only 25 percent black. The Landmark poll is 30.5 percent black.

Blacks made up about 28 percent of the electorate in 2010 and 30 percent in 2008 and 2012, with Barack Obama on the ballot. One of the Democrats’ main hopes this year is to push black turnout to presidential-year levels.

Check back for a full analysis of the Senate race math Saturday on myajc.com and in Sunday’s printed edition.

46 comments
lithoniaguy
lithoniaguy

Nunn will get bet by at least 10 points. Shes already turned off a large portion of black voters, by acting like shes ashamed of the president.

Baumer_1
Baumer_1

I'm sure Nunn would make a fine Senator, but there is no way she can beat the (R) on election day...even if that (R) represents everything that is wrong with American business.

RichardWinger
RichardWinger

Another problem with the Rasmussen Poll is that it asked "If the election for US Senate were held today would you vote for Republican David Perdue or Democrat Michelle Nunn?"  A good pollster would let respondents hear the names of all 3 ballot-listed candidates, including Libertarian Amanda Swafford.

JohnBoy10
JohnBoy10

David Perdue, first interview the morning after his victory over Jack Kingston.


"I believe Republicans need to unite against Federal programs that are slowing the economy like the Environmental Protection Agency, the Frank Dodd Act and corporate tax rates."


I sure am glad I caught that synopsis of this man's views, whom I foolishly began to view as a moderate, somewhat sensible politician. (only when compared to Kingston, I guess). How wrong I was!


The E.P.A. is the only governmental agency in place that can protect the health of our environment, and therefore our citizenry, against the misgivings of corporate greed, where self serving profiteering take precedent over OUR planet.


The Frank Dodd Act - has Purdue so quickly forgotten the utter devastation to main street America caused by the self serving money grubbing unrestrained banking industry? Surely he was kidding, right?


And corporate tax rates? - my goodness - congress supported massive corporate tax loopholes, the shift to non-tax-paying-off-shore corporate headquarters, massive tax breaks to entice corporations to move to states - that do not pay a fair "living wage"...job creators? no, not really....


Purdue - a wolf in sheep's clothing. Boy, once I took a closer look, he supports ALL that I am apposed to.


Protect our environment. Regulate the banking and financial industry. Enforce corporations to pay their FAIR share of taxes. Vote common sense. Vote Democrat. Vote Carter.



NWGAL
NWGAL

When Kingston came out with that last minute jab about Perdue associating with terrorists and the French, I was surprised. It didn't seem necessary for a front runner. So did the desperation lose him voters or did he know or suspect something the polls did not?

DS
DS

Thanks for the update on the turnout assumptions, Daniel. Good scoop.

Zwei
Zwei

Pollsters like Rasmussen along with the GOP and their Tea Part consorts are discounting African-American voter turnout. That will be their downfall especially with all the animus towards President Obama and AG Eric Holder from the GOP Tea Party both federally and statewide here in Georgia. Deal and Perdue are on shaky ground come November.

td1234
td1234

Obama lost to Romney is Georgia by 8 points with the largest black in history. Who believes Nunn and Carter will get a higher or even close to the same turnout as Obama? 

GA Peach
GA Peach

Perdue makes a gaffe a week. And his comments earlier this week about about Ms. Nunn's career and the earlier one about Ms. Handel's education indicate to me that he has serious subconscious issues with women. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds, but I can't imagine voting for a man who has devoted his life to helping himself over a woman who's devoted her life to service.

DannyX
DannyX

 "We suspect differing projections for the minority share of the electorate this fall."

I would say that is right on the money.  

If Republicans keep talking about impeachment the minority vote will be much larger than normal.

SouthernDem
SouthernDem

Rasmussen relies too heavily on non-cell phone users, which usually means a higher number of respondents who are white and older--and more conservative. Plus, Rasmussen himself is a registered GOPer.

That said, I suspect this race is neck and neck. Republicans are happy they have a nominee, finally, and there are just too many Democrats now living in this state for Republicans to dismiss.

Not thrilled with Nunn but I'll be voting for her.

stevedollar2013
stevedollar2013

Yes a reputable poll like Rasmussen of some poll no one's ever heard of....

Aboli
Aboli

Perhaps Michelle will be a Dixiecrat. The peaches don't fall far from the tree. Imagine the Democratic Party moving right again.

DS
DS

And WSB/Landmark has Carter 47, Deal 40. They haven't been showing poll reports and cross tabs, though, so take it with a grain of salt.

LookbeforeIleap
LookbeforeIleap

 "We suspect differing projections for the minority share of the electorate this fall."

Nahh, might be seeing an uptick in voters who have some human compassion after Deal armed the photon torpedoes and put the deflectors at full power over the Guatemala child refugee crisis.

Baumer_1
Baumer_1

I think you are projecting your attitudes onto a population that isn't as interested in politics as you are.

Turnout will be low, but not because you perceive her as ashamed of the president. It will be low for the same reason it is always low in midterms: lack of interest, institutional barriers to voting, and low saliency.

DS
DS

@lithoniaguy Michelle Nunn holds a strong lead among black voters, according to recent polls.

NWGAL
NWGAL

Vote Nunn since she is running for the Senate.

DS
DS

@NWGAL Good question. I'd guess that Kingston knew he was in trouble. 

Eric Cantor did something similar in his race against Brat, when he surprised everyone by going strong negative in the last 3 weeks against a nobody. Cantor knew.

Philip Bump, of the Washington Post, did some fancy analysis of the election results, and he found that Kingston didn't pick up enough votes from supporters of candidates eliminated in the May primary. Rather than switching to Kingston, many of them just stayed home, despite the endorsements from eliminated candidates.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/07/23/the-story-of-the-georgia-senate-run-off-in-maps/

Kingston might have sensed this was happening and knew what that would mean.

td1234
td1234

@Zwei So you really believe black turnout will be higher or even at the same levels as it was for the first black president in the history of this country? 

NOlongerRepublican
NOlongerRepublican

@td1234 So what about white turn-out know it all td? You think white folks are going to come out in really strong numbers to re-elect a very ethically challenged governor? That will lead to fewer white votes for Perdue as well, right? Oh and there is no doubt you are a

racist.

CherokeeCounty
CherokeeCounty

@td1234 Do you even have any clue how racist you come across, with your continued allegations that black folk won't bother to come out and vote when there are no blacks on the ballot?

If the Dems are smart, they will trumpet comments like yours all over the state.

AuntieChrist
AuntieChrist

@GA Peach Good points. perdue insulted everyone in the state who doesn't have a degree, saying that anyone w/o a degree is 'unqualified.'  Now the red meat he hopes to feed his low info base, will be to attack Nunn for having been educated at 'elitist private schools,' and Harvard.

It is getting to where these puppies don't know which foot to put in their mouth.


JAWJA
JAWJA

@SouthernDem Remember Rasmussen being totally wrong in his polling of Obama/romney 2012. His polls are wishful thinking. Sure got rove in a dander on election night. All those millions to buy an election; for naught.

CherokeeCounty
CherokeeCounty

@stevedollar2013 Yeah I would hang my hat on Rasmussen, Steve. Their final poll in 2012 was one of only two that had Romney winning. They'll keep you all warm and fuzzy right up till the day after the election.

td1234
td1234

@DS I have heard that the Landmark was a push poll? 

AuntieChrist
AuntieChrist

@LookbeforeIleap
  Isn't it terrible the way Obama is following the law that deal voted for, and bush signed. That is certainly out of character for 'the most lawless president in history.'  I mean, boehner won't pass immigration reform, because Obama won't enforce it, isn't that their story and they're sticking to it?

JohnBoy10
JohnBoy10

@NWGAL 

Right...a little off point, I was...alas, Carter would be an upgrade as well!

 

Zwei
Zwei

@td1234

As an African-American, I do believe our turnout at the polls will be higher than what has been projected by pollsters such as Rasmussen. If you care for me to explain why I have come to that belief, I'd be happy to explain it to you in civilized discourse.

td1234
td1234

@NOlongerRepublican Well your first question about white turnout is a good question. On one hand white turnout could be low due to Deal and his ethics problems and not enough people being excited about Perdue. On the other hand there will be a big push to vote for the Constitutional Amendment to cap the income tax and that will bring out fiscal conservatives. 


Whatever with the BS racist comment. 

td1234
td1234

@CherokeeCounty Throw out the race card? What a bunch of BS. To point out a fact about the excitement level of blacks and there record turnout for the first black president and then to make a statement that the same level of turnout will not happen this year is not racist but realist. Same statement could be said about Catholics and the Kennedy election and it would be accurate. 


Democrats will make the same statement about women coming out in record numbers if Hillary becomes democratic nominee in 2016.


If you do not want to face facts then keep your dang head buried in the sand but to call me a racist is pure BS.  


Fact is in Georgia without a extremely high black turnout then democrats have little to no chance of winning and to believe that black turnout is going to be higher for two white elitist progressives than when the first black president ran in this state is just pure delusional. 

AuntieChrist
AuntieChrist

@CherokeeCounty @stevedollar2013

Their 2008 predictions were even more wretched than 2012, e.g. Oh, Fl, NC, Va, Co were 'solidly' mccain. Other states, NY I can think of right off hand, were supposed to be Obama by 3%, when actuals were Obama by 12.  

But scott rasmussen is no fool, when repups pay you to do a poll, they don't want to hear that they are losing, so just like pox news, he tells them what they want to hear.  puppies don't like truth, they like feel good stuff, like 'mission accomplished.'

lithoniaguy
lithoniaguy

@Zwei  I'm black too, and I say no way will Nunn win. The black turnout will be less because Nunn is a boring moderate REPUBLICAN, who don't want to be seen with the black president. And she seems ashamed to be a Democrat.

td1234
td1234

@Zwei I will be as civilized to a another poster as they are to me. I would like to hear your explanation as to how the black turnout will be as high or higher. 

honested
honested

@td1234 @NOlongerRepublican 

Your attachment to that silly income tax amendment is astounding.

Like it or not, the average Georgian does not share your deep umbrage to collecting revenue when necessary.

AuntieChrist
AuntieChrist

@td1234 The delusion is believing that there aren't tons ( or maybe binders full) of White folks that are not sick of deal, corporate honchos, the likes of jody hice, and tp's  in general.  Maybe Black folks turn out, maybe they don't, but you can bet your bippie women and gays will, along with the white elderly males who remember the righteousness of Jimmy Carter and the statesmanship of Sam Nunn, traits we have not seen come out of Jawja since those men left office.

CherokeeCounty
CherokeeCounty

@td1234 Sorry td, but of course I wouldn't expect you to own up to your beliefs. I'm surprised you didn't bring up your Asian wife.

Your continued argument that blacks are only going to come out to vote in high numbers if they can vote for a black candidate is clearly offensive. Just as offensive as someone like Sharpton saying whites won't vote for Obama because he's black.

DS
DS

@lithoniaguy

Michelle Nunn is a new kind of Southern Democrat who are appealing to all kinds of voters who are tired of culture wars, political gridlock, dysfunction in government and hostility toward various classes and ethnicities. From The Hill:

"The tectonic plate of electoral politics in the South is shifting. Faced with adversity, Southern Democrats have elevated a new generation of savvy leaders with a political touch in Bill Clinton’s style, a moderate progressivism that appeals to small and new tech business, a soft populism that appeals to working-class voters, and a can-do attitude that contrasts nicely against gridlock in Washington and the hostile fanaticism of an unpopular GOP brand."

"New-generation Southern Democrats attract, and hard-right Southern Republicans repel many Hispanics, moderates and moderate conservative women, as well as black voters energized by dynamic new leaders such as the Rev. William Barber, president of the North Carolina NAACP."

http://thehill.com/opinion/brent-budowsky/211791-brent-budowsky-the-rise-of-southern-dems

Zwei
Zwei

@td1234

I just checked into my hotel room as I am out town for a meeting on Saturday. So if you would kindly allow tomorrow to respond back to you. I shall.