Posted: 7:00 am Friday, July 18th, 2014

First poll since ethics case revival gives Jason Carter edge over Nathan Deal 

By Greg Bluestein

State Sen. Jason Carter at a press conference near the state Capitol on Tuesday, reacting to allegations by the head of the state ethics commission that she was threatened to "make the complaints" against the governor "go away, " according to a memo she wrote. Hyosub Shin, hshin@ajc.com

State Sen. Jason Carter at a press conference near the state Capitol on Tuesday, reacting to allegations by the head of the state ethics commission that she was threatened to “make the complaints” against the governor “go away, ” according to a memo she wrote. Hyosub Shin, hshin@ajc.com

Our corporate cousins over at WSB-TV released a poll that gives Democrat Jason Carter the edge over Republican Gov. Nathan Deal.

The poll by Landmark Communications, a Republican-oriented firm, put Carter at 49 percent and Deal at 41 percent. Libertarian Andrew Hunt received 4 percent. The poll, conducted Tuesday, was the first survey since the release of a 2-year-old memo that raises new questions about the involvement of the governor’s staff in a campaign finance case.

Your daily jolt on politics from the AJC's Political insider blogPoll crosstabs give Deal a nine-point advantage with male voters, but find women support Carter by a nearly 2-to-1 margin. Carter also has the edge among black voters and those under 40. Interestingly, independents – who tend to lean to the right – are split between the two.

There’s a high possibility that Carter is benefiting from a media bubble, given the timing of the survey. But we’re sure he’ll take it.

***

An InsiderAdvantage survey conducted for Morris News Service, WAGA-TV in Atlanta and the Marietta Daily Journal has Jack Kingston up over David Perdue in the Republican runoff for U.S. Senate, 46 to 41 percent.

On the methodology:

The “SuperPoll”, which includes both telephone and online surveys of 696 likely voters in the Georgia GOP primary runoff to be held next Tuesday, is weighted for age, race, and gender. It has a margin of error of 3.7% with a confidence level of 95%.

***

One question has led to another to another about the timeline that led Gov. Nathan Deal’s aides to contact ethics chief Holly LaBerge about his pending campaign complaints. (We had to update one post with new details so many times yesterday our head is still spinning.)

Deal’s aides sat down for a few hours the other night to nail down the two-year-old details. What resulted is this timeline that Deal’s office posted to its website last night.

Fair warning for politicos: It also offers a dose of campaign rhetoric, such as the claim that the “issue is being used as a political hammer because Democrats can’t run against Deal on the issues or the record.”

Find the entire timeline right here.

***

The governor also couldn’t resist taking a shot at his Democratic challenger in the hourlong interview with Erick Erickson on the ethics fallout. Gov. Nathan Deal took a shot at Democrat Jason Carter’s Chicago upbringing.

Said Deal:

“Don’t try to convince all of us that you’re one of us. He’s been one of us for a very short period of time. He’s trying to make a step here, and he’s calling in all of the bigwigs from the national Democratic Party, and all of the friends of his grandfather.”

***

Bobby Cagle, the new director of the troubled state Division of Family and Children’s Services, was on WABE (90.1FM) with Denis O’Hayer on Thursday, talking about the 100 new caseworkers announced by Gov. Nathan Deal.

In the midst of the interview, to which you can listen here, Cagle indicated that he’s not a likely fan of the privatization movement that was pushed – and largely beaten back – by some state lawmakers this spring. Still, the state has initiated a few pilot programs. Said the DFACS chief:

“I think we’re trying this out at the behest of the governor, at the foster-care end of the system, to see what privatization might do for us. What I would tell you is that much of the system currently is run by contract with private entities.

“We’re also very aware of the experiences of other states. It has been a mixed bag. But we have also seen that it is consistently more expensive than state administered systems.”

***

U.S. Rep. Jack Kingston has already snapped up much of the establishment support in Georgia. Now he’s starting to get support from across the state line.

This morning, we got word that Rep. Trey Gowdy, a South Carolina Republican who’s made a name for himself with biting questions at Congressional hearings, is backing Kingston’s Senate bid.

Said Gowdy:

“We can take back the Senate this fall, but not if we don’t win in Georgia. We need a strong conservative in the race and that’s Jack Kingston.”

***

Conservative activist Brent Bozell’s ForAmerica is putting another $100,000 into digital ads attacking David Perdue, according to a new FEC filing. The group is now up to $200,000 in spending on online ads.

Also, in the coastal First District Congressional runoff, a pro-Buddy Carter Super PAC called Prescription for America’s Future bought mobile billboards and sent out mailers, for a total of about $35,000. The group has spent $71,000 backing Carter this year in his race against Bob Johnson.

***

Amid all the televised mud-throwing in the Republican runoff, a Republican Super PAC wants to make sure you know Democrat Michelle Nunn has some bad points, too.

Ending Spending, the group that attacked both Nunn and Rep. Phil Gingrey (presumably because he would not have been a good general election candidate) back during the primary, is back up on the air this week.

FCC filings show the group is spending $102,000 on Atlanta broadcast TV, $15,000 in Savannah, $12,200 in Columbus, $5,400 in Albany, and at least $7,800 in Macon.

***

The top of the Washington Post story said it all: “We could have a U.S. senator who once appeared in a Miley Cyrus movie.”

Yep, Rep. Jack Kingston was an extra in “The Last Song,” with Cyrus, a role which earned him a whopping $8 an hour.

Click to see the blink-and-you-miss-it image.

326 comments
pdoreika
pdoreika

I'm all about not visiting the sins of the father onto the son, but with Jason Carter the apple didn't fall far from the tree.  He's as appealing as a candidate as was his dad.  And, for those who don't remember, his dad was the known as the worst president of the United States for 16 years.  If you want another sleazy politician then Carter is your guy.  But he's NOT FOR ME.

Jack C.Hall Jr.
Jack C.Hall Jr.

Georgia has one of the highest unemployment rates in the US, only 5 other states have it worse. Time for a fresh face, and new outlook in Georgia....Carter is a true Statesman. 

Bubba30342
Bubba30342

Deal is better than the young staffers with which he has surrounded himself.


Bubba30342
Bubba30342

Looks like we can look forward to a few more months of being carpet bombed by negative political advertising designed to turn off voters and discourage anybody from voting for anyone.

7Syon
7Syon

Deal is a crook. Anyone paying attention with their eyes open can tell there's been more then one cover up with this guy. It's sad how we blindly support people.

stevedollar2013
stevedollar2013

Honestly no one really believes this non-sense. By election time Deal will be cruising to victory. Little jimmy as well as michele numb has no chance in bright red Georgia....


You people....

SueEllenEwing
SueEllenEwing

Once Deal is removed, every state agency should be audited.  Deal and his administration is robbing the taxpayers blind. I know the agency I work for is.

cheezburger
cheezburger

my classmate's step-aunt makes $68 /hour on the internet . She has been unemployed for ten months but last month her payment was $15854 just working on the internet for a few hours. Read Full Report WWW.JOBS7000.COM


Infraredguy
Infraredguy

Would not be a great surprise, the majority low information voter in Atlanta will vote for anything with the name Democrat in front of their name and the Latta drinking Liberals will certainly vote for Carter because they think he will give them another freebie. So Deal could lose to old " Empty Suit " Jason

SEP-AU
SEP-AU

My personal poll puts Carter ahead by 100 percentage points.  Looking forward to the upgrade.

EdUktr
EdUktr

Unfortunately for Jason Carter, the AJC won't be able to continue inflating this trivial story. And even worse, the debacle on our southern border and other world events will bury it.

The Obama Administration's ever more apparent ineptitude will likewise work against Carter and Michelle Nunn.

THEMAJOR
THEMAJOR

Bookman will write anything to get Deal out of office.  Carter can't even carry Plains.

ComaToes
ComaToes

If anyone with the name of Carter wins in GA,  I will henceforth disclaim GA as my home state. Even though I live in another state now, was born and raised there, but hate Jimmy Carter almost as much as BO.  No way a Carter should ever again win any office in GA.  

MartyMartin
MartyMartin

Jason Carter will be a GREAT governor!


ljax
ljax

I will be voting for Carter in November.  I am a new voter to Georgia and Carter gets my vote.  Deal is a too faced liar that does what ever is in his favor and not the people of Georgia.  It is time for a Democrat to give it another try in Georgia.  Deal had ethics problems when he was in Congress and that is why he bailed out of Congress to run for governor here and he brought those ethics things with him.  Carter will be a much better governor than Deal.  It is time for change. I will also be voting a democrat for senate too instead of one of those 2 guys that are slugging it out in all those TV ads for the senate seat.  Again it is time for change in Georgia. 


William1952
William1952

Anybody who believes this rag is unbiased is a fool or a Democrat. Or both.

Squeaks and squawks from both are now being accepted.

dreluv
dreluv

What does President Obama got to do with the election in Georgia or Nathan Deal ethics violation.

Republican don't have anything to say but Obama it sad how you all will vote for this crook who destroying Georgia..Nathan Deal is running scare now he calling Georgia Republican senator for help.

Georgian going to make sure they give Nathan Deal his pink slip.

chuckie99
chuckie99

Me thinks the AJC is trying to steer the race in Carter's favor. I don't think the people of Georgia would every put another Carter in office after suffering through Jimmy.

I just took a poll of a few friends and Carter didn't get  any support. It all depends on who you poll and I would guess their poll was all inside 285.

Williebkind
Williebkind

Carter's dad had to have some mentoring/influence in Jason's character and ability.  Therefore Deal is a better choice.  This is not a kindom where office is inherited. 

SouthernDem
SouthernDem

What on Earth does Nathan Deal being a crook have to do with President Obama? You can see right through Republicans--except when they are making excuses for their man lousy candidates, wrongheaded positions and countless scandals and cover-ups. Clever smoke screens won't distract aware voters from the real issues.

This election is about Georgia. Nathan Deal has not done anything that make him worthy of reelection. Save the GOP talking points-we need leadership that's gonna help this state move forward and keep progress going for ALL Georgians.

Thankfully, poll after pol is showing that voters are getting a clear picture of what a mess Deal is, and why his brand of crooked, backroom dealing has no place in our state government.

GA Voters: Lets show Deal the door n November.

dcdcdc
dcdcdc

This is going to be only the first in a long line of "manufactured ethics crisis" publicized by the AJC and their cronies.  There was a time when the AJC and team managed and controlled the message - fortunately, facebook, etc have destroyed their control.


But they 1) don't realize it yet, and 2) are so blinded to their bias, that they are willing to let their business model die in support of their ideology (and I think that's great!!).


Think about it...when is the last time you saw an AJC in your neighbor's driveway?  Their influence has plummeted, and will continue to, until it's a shell of a website that only the "Atlanta liberal choir" members still read.

4williec
4williec

Unreal how easy so many Georgia voters are or will be duped by this slight of hand being played on Nathan Deal. I am not a great fan of Deal, but I am sure he is quite favorable to Carter. Don't let Obama type, Chicago style campaign tactics dictate how our state is run.

leefrommeeks
leefrommeeks

only a fool would vote for another Carter!

honested
honested

@EdUktr 

No 'inflation' will be necessary.

We can all watch the trial and conviction on teevee!

Who will provide you the poll for that?

Ralph-43
Ralph-43

@THEMAJOR  Did you read the poll?  Apparently not.  Fixed opinions and uneducated ideas are dangerous for all of us.

SEP-AU
SEP-AU

@ComaToes  Hate, hate, hate....the republican platform in three 4 letter words.  By all means, disclaim away.  We've certainly disclaimed you.  And good riddance.

Judetheobtuse
Judetheobtuse

@ComaToes Well then, I really, really hope he wins and....don't let the door hit you in your fat A--  on the way out the symbolic door. We don't need you! Never have. Never will!

Ralph-43
Ralph-43

@ComaToes  Coma appears to be a good moniker for you.  We are not missing you.

honested
honested

@William1952 

Does reality trouble you so much that you must 'depends' on media outlets to shield you from it?

Kamchak
Kamchak

@William1952 

Anybody who believes this rag is unbiased is a fool or a Democrat. Or both.

Anyone who believed that we would be greeted as liberators is a fool.

Judetheobtuse
Judetheobtuse

@chuckie99 That's because you don't understand the nature of polls, or anything else scientific apparently. Do you REALLY, REALLY think that a poll that includes only your friends is a reliable poll? Really?

Kamchak
Kamchak

@Williebkind 

This is not a kindom[sic] where office is inherited.

George W. Bush says, "What?"

Ralph-43
Ralph-43

@Williebkind  I do know that much about Jason Carter's father.  Please explain your comment.

Judetheobtuse
Judetheobtuse

@dcdcdc "when is the last time you saw an AJC in your neighbor's driveway? " Every day dude. Next question?

RoadScholar
RoadScholar

@dcdcdc If it is not in our driveways, why are you worried about its' influence? Paranoid much? Desperate?

Kamchak
Kamchak

@dcdcdc 

 ...when is the last time you saw an AJC in your neighbor's driveway? 

This morning.

Think about it.


Ralph-43
Ralph-43

@dcdcdc  I see the A.J.C. in all my neighbors' porches and driveways.  I would be nervous if my neighbors did not know how to read or, worse, were busy watching T.V. and playing with their cell phones.

Ralph-43
Ralph-43

@4williec  I don't think that $25 million Nathan took to cancel the United Healthcare contract and give it to Blue Cross is slight of hand being 'played' on old Deal.  Call United and see what they think about the $35 million they gave Deal to try to get it back.  And the $3 million plus doled out by the taxpayers to shut up the Ethics Committee?  I guess you were in favor of that.  This does not have anything to do with Chicago or Obama - this is Deal's modus operandi - the reason he was run out of the U.S. House.  This bum belongs in Jail next to the Illinois governor - maybe that's were you got your ideas.

SomebodySaid
SomebodySaid

@4williec So, this whole ethics investigation is the result of a "tactic" by Carter?