Posted: 2:58 pm Friday, July 11th, 2014

Barry Loudermilk internal poll has him up 49-28 on Bob Barr 

By Daniel Malloy

Got your grains of salt? Good. Former State Sen. Barry Loudermilk released an internal poll today showing him with a healthy lead on former Rep. Bob Barr in the 11th Congressional District runoff.

The key question:

T5. If the Republican primary runoff election for Congress were being held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were Bob Barr and Barry Loudermilk?
Barry Loudermilk ……………………………………………. 49%
Bob Barr ………………………………………………………… 28%
Definitely Loudermilk ……………………………………… 36%
Probably Loudermilk ……………………………………….. 13%
Definitely Barr ………………………………………………… 22%
Probably Barr …………………………………………………… 6%
Undecided …………………………………………………….. 23%

The full crosstabs are here. Magellan Strategies reports that the autodial survey was conducted July 7-8 with a 3.65 percent margin of error at a 95 percent confidence interval.

 

19 comments
Armydawg
Armydawg

Barry Loudermilk tried to make us believe he was smart enough to be an Air Force pilot (he wasn't) and dumb enough to not know his own secretary was being fired in an overt act of racism.  And now he wants us to think he is winning in a landslide.  I suggest he run for the Presidency of the Ringling Brothers clown union where he will be move believable and where people will laugh with him and not at him.

td1234
td1234

 It appears none of our progressive friends want to come out and make the bold prediction that either Nunn or Carter will win in November. Makes one wonder if they actually know deep down in their hearts that neither has a ice cubes chance in hell in winning? 

honested
honested

I feel sorry for the Citizens in the 11th.

Nowhere to go but down.

DS
DS

It's interesting to compare expected voter demographics in this Magellan poll vs the InsiderAdvantage poll.

Magellan assumes 34% will be age 65+, while IA assumes 45% will be age 65+. Magellan assumes 88% will be white, while IA assumes 96% will be white.

With such a small turnout expected, even a small variation in actual voter demographics could produce different outcomes.

These polls really are wild guesses.

JackClemens
JackClemens

Hope he has the same pollster as Eric Cantor.

The_Centrist
The_Centrist

Loudermilk is probably ahead just on the basis of the first primary election where he was pretty well in front of Barr 37% to 26%.

Here is some interesting political insider news:

Mayor Reed quote on the need for Carter and Nunn to pander to black Democrats (redundant):
And if they haven’t invested, I would say somewhere between three to five million in their registration efforts and in their voter contact efforts, I don’t believe they are going to prevail."  (From the Peach Pundit)

Can you imagine if an Atlanta suburb County Chairman said that about potential Tea Party members what a ruckus that would cause?

Not that it matters.  Neither of these Democrats have much chance of prevailing in the red state of GA where there are no Democrats serving in state wide elected office, and during a mid-term election looking grim for Democrats nationwide with Obama's job rating at historic lows.

DS
DS

@td1234 I think anyone who makes bold predictions about anything in politics is full of it. Nobody really knows, and that's what makes this so interesting and exciting, at least for me.

Moderate Democratic candidates are becoming competitive again in the South because of a combination of changing demographics, voter fatigue with political extremism and animosity, and the arrival of talented candidates.

Here's a recent article in The Hill that describes a few of these campaigns: http://thehill.com/opinion/brent-budowsky/211791-brent-budowsky-the-rise-of-southern-dems .

Will they win? We'll just have to wait and see. I don't like to leave a ball game at the end of the 3rd quarter---I stay and cheer for my team until we have a winner.

td1234
td1234

@honested Either one will make a good conservative replacement for Phil are far better choices than Scott, Lewis or Johnson. 

The_Centrist
The_Centrist

@DS - Agree, except some polls are simply bought.  From Wikipedia - Magellan provides data and information services to Republican candidates, conservative political organizations.

The National Journal polling editor said that the Magellan Poll had made significant sampling errors, by over-sampling senior citizens.  Additionally, the poll was conducted as a robo-call targeting landline telephones and ignored cell phones. Michael Brendan Dougherty of Business Insider characterized it as "a useless poll beyond generating over-cooked headlines".

It had Gingrich in a tie with Romney in New Hampshire, and was wildly off.

Magellan was criticized for making an inaccurate prediction that Tom Tancredo would win the 2010 Colorado Governors Election. 2010 gubernatorial election in Colorado. Magellan CEO & President David Flaherty flatly stated that “Tom Tancredo will become Colorado's next governor,” on Friday, October 29, 2010. Tom Tancredo lost to Democrat John Hickenlooper on election day, November 2. Hickenlooper resoundingly beat Tancredo by a margin of 51% to 36%. Editorial page editor Curtis Hubbard of the Denver Post gave Magellan his "Agony of Defeat" award for the worst poll in the gubernatorial race.

It is obviously a bought and paid for polling service to show whatever the buyer wants.

TBS
TBS

@The_Centrist 

Yet you still cry about them morning, noon and night.

 

CuriousPrime
CuriousPrime

@The_Centrist Since when has the tried and true concept of investing in registration efforts and voter outreach is suppose to be "pandering" only to Blacks?  It would say that this is a strategy to win the votes of all Democrats, Independents, and Moderate Republicans.


Atlanta Suburban white politicans pandered 24/7 to (white) Tea Party members as evident by their "I'm a real conservative" rhetoric rather than address how to solve issues.


Yes, Obama's job rating is at historic lows 39%, but conservatives fail to mention that the point spread between his rating and that of John Boehner's (23%) has widen.  In fact, Boehner's rating is 6 points lower than the lowest point for Nancy Pelosi and George Soros hasn't spent $70 million vilifying him like the RW did on Pelosi. 

NOlongerRepublican
NOlongerRepublican

@The_Centrist keep telling yourself that...one day you might actually believe it! Everybody knows Nunn and Carter both have uphill battles so your comments are not anything newsworthy or informative. But you like to keep posting smug predictions and usually yours end up being wrong...so keep posting! We will revisit in November. Let's see if you are actually correct this time, or wrong as usual.

honested
honested

@td1234 @honested 

tiny dog, 

Not every Georgian wants a moron for a representative.

The notion of conserrrrrrrrrrrrrvative denotes little else.

DS
DS

@The-Centrist, yes that's a good point. This poll could have some spin in it, although the InsiderAdvantage demographic assumptions seem more extreme to me.

Like Daniel wrote, lots of grains of salt with these polls.

EdUktr
EdUktr

@NOlongerRepublican @The_Centrist

Seems you have more than a few fellow NeverBeenRepublican blog comrades who still can't admit Carter and Nunn are long shots.

NOlongerRepublican
NOlongerRepublican

@EdUktr There is not a knowledgeable person in Georgia who doesn't know that Georgia is a solid red-state that makes it hard for a Democrat to win. That is why we don't actually get real strong Democratic candidates. Nobody gave either Nunn or Carter a chance start with...including myself. But things are looking a little brighter. Still a long way to go but I think Carter actually has a better chance than Nunn because I don't think Georgians will vote for a woman for senate no matter who she is. These two candidates are great people and would serve the state of Georgia much better than either one of their opponents. Deal is as slimy as they come but still gets the adoration of idiots who don't pay attention or care about ethics, i.e. YOU, and Kingston is a career politician who has accomplished nothing in 20+ years in Congress but still has an advantage because he has an R next to his name. Perdue will fit into the useless Senator category as well because he only is concerned about the 1% who he pals around with.