Posted: 12:55 pm Thursday, June 26th, 2014

David Perdue: GOP contest for U.S. Senate is still a horse race 

By Jim Galloway

Grab your salt-shakers people, but pay attention, too. We’ve got hold of a polling memo being sent around to supporters by David Perdue, the U.S. Senate candidate in a GOP runoff with Jack Kingston.

You have every right to your skepticism, but you can also bet this is what the Fortune 500 exec is telling potential donors over the phone – what with a June 30 fund-raising deadline approaching.

The data come from a live voice poll conducted on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday of this week – 600 GOP voters, MOE of +/-4.0 percentage points.

The memo contains two basic messages that Perdue is attempting to push out: One, that a barrage TV criticism from pro-Kingston groups hasn’t wounded him. The first-time candidate’s approval ranking still sits at a 63 percent, with 19 percent of voters rating him unfavorably.

Secondly, the race is closer than other polls have indicated. Those have given Kingston a double-digit lead. Perdue’s survey – conducted by a firm he’s paying, remember – has the two candidates in a virtual tie: Perdue, 45 percent, and Kingston, 44 percent.

Read and absorb here:

58 comments
Scatrat
Scatrat

If you want more of the same old garbage out of Washington, then keep re- electing career politicians like Kingston....he has been there much too long. We cannot keep doing the same old things and making the same mistakes and expect different results.  It's past time to break up the "good old boy" network and get some fresh, new faces who are willing to do what's in the best interest of average Americans vs. their own self-serving interests!!

QuintEssential
QuintEssential

I get all these autosurvey calls asking if I plan to vote for Kingston or Perdue.

Neither. It's Nunn for me. I would enjoy getting a chance to let those campaigns know this.

Disgusted Veteran
Disgusted Veteran

Perdue is a sure loser in this primary runoff. He shot himself in the foot with the attempt to mislead voters with his silly ads on what is supposed to be Kingston's voting record. I am tired of misleading politicians who think voters will swallow anything.. Most voters realize that increases in the spending limit has been necessary to keep the government from shutting down and hurting everyone. It is not that I like increasing the spending limits. I don't! But after all the debt we have incurred with two wars and a lot of foolish overspending we cannot allow another shutdown! Your ads cost you my vote, Mr. Perdue. I am fed up with politicians who use smears to avoid talking about important issues that concern us all.

CherokeeCounty
CherokeeCounty

Fascinating the length that some people will go to with their whines about 

 This liberal "Political Insider" blog (sic).

They quote Nate Silver, and continually trot out the Insider Advantage polls - run by Republicans, and listed by Nate Silver as the next to worst of the 60 or so polls he follows.

So when Ed and fake _centrist bloviate about Matt Towery's 'poll' and trot it out as evidence that the AJC is biased, take them with a huge grain of salt.

When you can't even be honest about your core beliefs, _centrist, no one will pay attention to you and your sophomoric conspiracy theories.

Wascatlady
Wascatlady

I wouldn't say "horse,"  I'd say a race between two jack@zzes!

longmemories
longmemories

Perdue is the only one who understands you can't cut expenses or raise taxes enough to balance the budget. You have to bring back the trillions chased overseas by frank/dodd and Sarbanes-Oxley. Perdue probably

won't win but he understands international business. Kingston will just be more of the same. His kind are a dime a dozen in d.c.

Jefferson1776
Jefferson1776

The incumbent Kingston has been on the gravy train too long.  There ain't a nickel difference between them anyway.  Kingston's time has accomplished little.

The_Centrist
The_Centrist

This liberal "Political Insider" blog went out of its way to never mention the SurveyUSA poll released June 6th that showed Carter and Nunn trailing.  Today it highlights an internal poll done for Perdue.  Let's see if the Insider Advantage poll released today that again shows Carter trailing Deal by an even wider margin also gets ignored. 

The_Centrist
The_Centrist

Copied and pasted from the Peach Pundit:

Insider Advantage / Fox 5 today released a new poll showing Governor Deal firmly in the lead against Democratic opponent Jason Carter.

In the poll of 1,349 likely voters, Deal gets 47%, Carter 40%, and Libertarian candidate Andrew Hunt receives 3%. 10% remain undecided. The poll also showed President Obama’s job performance rating at 41% approve, 58% disapprove.

ByteMe
ByteMe

A horse race or just a couple of old nags?

lithoniaguy
lithoniaguy

Nunn  is a democrat? And why does she wear leisure suits?

honested
honested

Was this done by a real pollster with a track record, or by whit ayers?

td1234
td1234

It appears that the AJC has decided Nunn has a better chance of defeating Perdue than Kingston. 

lithoniaguy
lithoniaguy

Whoever can degrade the black president the most will win the Confederate flag waving vote.

MaryPolleys
MaryPolleys

@Disgusted Veteran


Do you consider these 7 votes when Kingston voted to raise his own salary, as recorded in the Congressional Record,  to be misleading?

House Roll Call Vote #300 - 1999

House Roll Call Vote #267 - 2001
House Roll Call Vote #322 - 2002
House Roll Call Vote #463 - 2003
House Roll Call Vote #489 - 2004
House Roll Call Vote #261 - 2006
House Roll Call Vote #580 - 2007

From 1999-2007, the years Congressman Kingston was voting to raise his own pay, the national debt increased $5.5 trillion to over $9 trillion. (U.S. Treasury)  A Kingston supporter said these were just "procedural" votes.  I am not at all surprised that the career politicians, who specialize in fooling the voters, raised their own salary with "procedural" votes. Jack Kingston is part of this status quo and thus will not get my vote.

Scatrat
Scatrat

Speaking of "misleading" voters with "silly ads".....Kingston must think we are all idiots to believe his phony TV  ads which depict a phone call from President Obama!! Really?????   How low class is that. 

QuintEssential
QuintEssential

@Wascatlady

Voters in this state need to leave behind their partisanship and go with Michelle Nunn, someone who is high-caliber and will work for the people of Georgia.

QuintEssential
QuintEssential

@longmemories

The problems of international business are way beyond most Georgians.

How about a candidate who understands what we need here in the state to help the most Georgians? Not just the few who have wealth and the power base to make big deals. I say that's Nunn. Yes, jobs are crucial, but Perdue is like his cousin. He's most interested in lining his own pockets. Let's get some trustworthy people in this state to lead us.

DS
DS

@longmemories I think you have a point. 

Perdue caught my attention early in the race when he talked about getting the economy going again so fewer people would even need a safety net. As more people are working, paying taxes, and not collecting government assistance, the deficit will come down. 

Not many Republicans talk like that---made him stand out from the crowd.

Since then, he's tacked hard right. True conservative, and all that pablum. I'm not really sure where he stands.

I read a piece somewhere recently that observed that a few politicians are finding success by reaching out to voters outside of their expected constituency. Brat did that, and so did Cochran, in ways that confounded the pollsters. 

So, while I'm interested in polls, I don't consider their predictions inevitable. We have to let the campaigns play out.

QuintEssential
QuintEssential

@The_Centrist

So what? The summer is long and it gives Gov. Deal lots of time to make more mistakes. Please step aside and make room for him to do this.

StraightNoChaser
StraightNoChaser

@The_Centrist do you really think that anyone cares about anything that Fox has to say?  Seriously?  It too is owned by Rupert Murdock so it's fixed news too.   Who does that?

honested
honested

@The_Centrist 

insider advantage?

Too bad you don't have to have a license and a track record to be a pollster.

td1234
td1234

@ByteMe Have you actually taken a close look at Nunn when mentioning a nag? 

The_Centrist
The_Centrist

@lithoniaguy - She supports the dead Senate version of ILLEGAL immigrant amnesty, so she must be a Democrat.  Can't help you with your second question.

Claver
Claver

@td1234 I don't see it either.  If anything, it is that the media likes horse races (increases readers) so they want to keep the race alive.  If Kingston was the one doing worse, this story would have been about his new poll instead.

The_Centrist
The_Centrist

@td1234 - I don't see that.  Either will likely beat her, just as the pundits Cook, Sabato, Rothenberg, and Silver predict.  The AJC and other Democrats are loving the battle, though, and will use the loser's arguments again in the Fall.  But the mid-term election problem in the red state of GA where there is not a single Democrat elected to state-wide office, along with the electorate's disgust of Harry Reid will bury Ms. Nunn.

The_Centrist
The_Centrist

@StraightNoChaser - I don't take much stock in InsiderAdvantage polls, or any polls in May, June, July, or August - but there is a trend here which is definitely not good for Carter.  Fighting an incumbent Governor who has done an at least adequate job in a red state without a single Democrat elected to state-wide office facing big mid-term election problems is already a very uphill battle.  Professional pundits like Nate Silver, Charlie Cook, Larry Sabato, and Stuart Rothenberg all have Deal winning.  They look at history, expected campaign funds, incumbency, trends, and many other things.

lithoniaguy
lithoniaguy

@The_Centrist @lithoniaguy 

Like most white southern Democrats shes apologizing for being democrat as she try to appeal to whites who she knows hates the idea of having a black president..  ..Shes going to get trounced.

td1234
td1234

@Claver You have a valid point and after consideration I think that could be part of the reasons for this story. 

td1234
td1234

@The_Centrist I agree that both will probably win. I am just saying that the AJC has made the decision that Perdue is the best chance for Nunn. 

StraightNoChaser
StraightNoChaser

@td1234 Fox 5 Atlanta is a Fox owned and opererated television station in Atlanta GA owned by Fox Television Stations Inc.  Fox Television Stations Inc. is headquarted in New York City  and was founded by Rupert Murdoch in 1986.  You do know this don't you?  Jeeze do some research on your own sometimes.  The mind is a terrible thing to waste.

The_Centrist
The_Centrist

@td1234 - But Insider Advantage has an awful reputation for polling - it is all over the place for whatever reasons.

StraightNoChaser
StraightNoChaser

@The_Centrist What's I find interesting about everyone you mentioned is that none of them have called GA as safe republican state for Nathan Deal like they have with other republican state governors like AK, AL, ID, SD etc....  there site only says lean republican it does not even say likely Republican.  What I take from that is that they are not willing to bet the bank on Deal winning. 

The_Centrist
The_Centrist

@td1234 - What makes you think they are now rooting for Perdue against your favorite, Kingston?

td1234
td1234

@StraightNoChaser It is partially owned by Fox television stations and they are owned by Fox ENTERTAINMENT and not Fox News. 

td1234
td1234

@The_Centrist Just go back and read the articles over the past couple weeks and score them as positive/negative to both candidates. It is not hard to do a quick critical analysis of the articles. 


Yes, I am rooting for Kingston because I feel he is a known quality and not the wild card that Perdue is but I could vote for either in a general election.  

The_Centrist
The_Centrist

Four years ago during the Republican primary election for Governor:

  • On May 30th, Insider Advantage had Oxendine in the lead at 23%, with Deal in second at 15%, followed by Karen Handel at 14%.
  • On July 5th – just two weeks out from election day – Insider Advantage again had Oxendine in the lead, tied with Karen Handel at 18%. Deal was a distant 3rd at 12%.

Insider Advantage has since changed its polling techniques (can't get much worse) - here are some details:  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/05/02/insideradvantage-georgia-_n_5256255.html

StraightNoChaser
StraightNoChaser

@The_Centrist. Out of all the polls you mentioned only one is saying safe republican and that's cook.  There is nothing on Nat Silver since last year.  Larry Sabato is saying lean with state pink not red http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2014-governor/ Rothenberg website says Republican favored with a blue line indicating shift democrats. http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/spectrum/2014-gubernatorial-ratings-may-9-2014/gubernatorial.  You are the one splitting hairs by picking which polls to use and which ones not to use.  I do my own research I don't just accept the first thing that is said to me.   

The_Centrist
The_Centrist

@td1234 - I didn't notice any positive stuff from the AJC on either GOP candidates.  The negatives seemed to be equally distributed.

I understand the known vs unknown, but also like the idea of a non-professional politician representing me.  I may flip a coin.

td1234
td1234

@JAWJA Now you are talking about MSNBC, CNN, CBS, ABC and NBC

The_Centrist
The_Centrist

@StraightNoChaser - I'm not using the polling 5 and 6 months before the election (missing this latest one), but their prognostic RATINGS based on history, expected campaign funds, incumbency, trends, and many other things.  See my ratings links instead of 5 month out polling links you offer.

Silver had something a while back based on odds that favored Deal.

StraightNoChaser
StraightNoChaser

@The_Centrist my polls are not five months old Rothenberg is May 9th, this is June and Sabato's was just updated today June 26th.  You are the one who dropped names (Nate Silver, Charlie Cook, Larry Sabato, and Stuart Rothenberg) I just went to the websites and checked the stats on my own. 

The_Centrist
The_Centrist

@StraightNoChaser - Reread my post.  The polls are being done 5 months before the election.  Voters aren't focused.  Pundits factor in their RATINGS by what they expect will happen, and I outlined some of the inputs besides current polling they use.  Another input is that undecided voters in red states mostly break for Republicans (and the opposite in blue states).  I gave you links to those ratings, but you insist on referencing polls 5 month out from the election.  And today's poll is not yet included.

StraightNoChaser
StraightNoChaser

@The_Centrist my bad I misread your post I thought you said five months old not five months out.  I disagree with undecided voters breaking for republicans in red states.  The election of President Obama proved that. 

The_Centrist
The_Centrist

@StraightNoChaser - I'm not going to argue about specific points that professional pundits use for their ratings.  But they are more accurate in predicting than just polls this far from the election.  These are not my layman predictions (which I think Republicans will win by landslide margins), but theirs.  We have beaten this dead horse enough.